Splish Splash
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.90
13.69 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $8.00 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.67%
3,098 openings, odds method
Variance
7.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.80% – 112.54%, 3,098 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,120 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $224 344 gems | 14.0% | 19 | 15.6 | 1.22× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $156 240 gems | 19.5% | 43 | 31.2 | 1.38× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $93.43 144 gems | 11.7% | 37 | 31.2 | 1.19× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $48.46 74.55 gems | 12.1% | 62 | 62.4 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $42.30 65.08 gems | 10.6% | 66 | 62.4 | 1.06× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 20 | $16.85 25.92 gems | 10.5% | 169 | 156.0 | 1.08× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $7.70 11.85 gems | 9.6% | 302 | 312.0 | 0.97× |
| MP7 | Asterion (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $3.21 4.94 gems | 8.0% | 617 | 624.0 | 0.99× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Water Gungraffiti · Mythical | 25.0% | $1.11 1.7 gems | 3.5% | 778 | 780.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Hydro Wavesticker · blue | 33.5% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.6% | 1,027 | 1045.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $8.90 | 89.96% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.5%restricted 2.0%other 5.0%classified 10.0%consumer 20.0%Mythical 25.0%blue 33.5%best hit —