Spray God
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.34
28.22 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.51 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.04%
2,232 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,290 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $1,116 1,717 gems | 6.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 250 | $165 253 gems | 4.0% | 14 | 9.2 | 1.53× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 200 | $127 196 gems | 3.9% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 14.0% | $71.39 110 gems | 60.6% | 338 | 320.6 | 1.05× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $34.29 52.76 gems | 20.8% | 247 | 229.0 | 1.08× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $1.67 2.57 gems | 2.0% | 417 | 458.0 | 0.91× |
| MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.75 1.15 gems | 0.9% | 456 | 458.0 | 1.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.73 1.13 gems | 0.9% | 450 | 458.0 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 15.0% | $0.27 0.42 gems | 0.2% | 354 | 343.5 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$18.3428.22 gems$0.270.42 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$18.3428.22 gems$1.672.57 gems0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.34 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%Covert 0.4%#eb4b4b 0.5%mil spec 14.0%covert 10.0%Restricted 20.0%restricted 40.0%milspec 15.0%best hit $1,116 (60.84x)