Stained Marble
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.28
3.5 gems
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $2.04 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.25%
10.3K openings, odds method
Variance
13.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $230 354 gems | 11.3% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× |
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 10 | $13.73 21.13 gems | 66.5% | 993 | 1036.7 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 8.1% | 1,525 | 1570.8 | 0.97× |
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $0.90 1.39 gems | 13.3% | 3,210 | 3141.6 | 1.02× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 45.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.9% | 4,738 | 4712.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.28 | 89.82% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 9.9%#4b69ff 15.0%industrial 75.0%best hit $230 (101.2x)