Stealth Ops
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.23
86.5 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $50.60 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.10%
263 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 269 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 100 | $1,019 1,568 gems | 20.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $229 352 gems | 18.1% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× |
| MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $179 276 gems | 17.7% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $82.99 128 gems | 32.8% | 62 | 53.8 | 1.15× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $22.89 35.21 gems | 4.5% | 20 | 26.9 | 0.74× |
| USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $22.56 34.71 gems | 4.5% | 31 | 26.9 | 1.15× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $7.48 11.51 gems | 1.5% | 20 | 26.9 | 0.74× |
| MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $1.23 1.9 gems | 0.2% | 26 | 26.9 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $1.05 1.62 gems | 0.2% | 19 | 26.9 | 0.71× |
| USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.84 1.29 gems | 0.3% | 66 | 53.8 | 1.23× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryLost Panda$56.2386.5 gems$1,0191,568 gems18.12x
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryLost Panda$56.2386.5 gems$1,0191,568 gems18.12x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$56.2386.5 gems$7.4811.51 gems0.13x
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$56.2386.5 gems$0.841.29 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$56.2386.5 gems$229352 gems4.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $56.23 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%covert 4.0%classified 35.0%restricted 40.0%Consumer Grade 10.0%Rare 10.0%best hit $1,019 (18.12x)