Steel or No Steel
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$112.80
174 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $101.52 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.53%
251 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 257 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives | 1 in 50 | $1,833 2,820 gems | 36.1% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $957 1,472 gems | 18.9% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $650 1,000 gems | 12.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 50 | $448 690 gems | 8.8% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.97× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $257 395 gems | 5.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.97× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 12.0% | $62.89 96.75 gems | 7.4% | 34 | 30.8 | 1.10× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 12.0% | $48.75 75 gems | 5.8% | 20 | 30.8 | 0.65× |
| PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $15.35 23.62 gems | 3.0% | 57 | 51.4 | 1.11× |
| Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff | 22.0% | $8.35 12.85 gems | 1.8% | 55 | 56.5 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 24.0% | $1.32 2.03 gems | 0.3% | 62 | 61.7 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$113174 gems$1,8332,820 gems16.25x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$113174 gems$1,8332,820 gems16.25x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$113174 gems$1,8332,820 gems16.25x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$113174 gems$1,8332,820 gems16.25x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$113174 gems$1,8332,820 gems16.25x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$113174 gems$1,8332,820 gems16.25x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$113174 gems$9571,472 gems8.48x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$113174 gems$9571,472 gems8.48x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$113174 gems$9571,472 gems8.48x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$113174 gems$9571,472 gems8.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeRamen Noodles$113174 gems$48.7575 gems0.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $113 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedKnives 2.0%covert 18.0%Immortal 2.0%covert knife 12.0%mil spec 20.0%#87c7ff 22.0%Industrial Grade 24.0%best hit $1,833 (16.25x)