Sticker Package
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$256.39
394 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $230.75 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.61%
1,403 openings, odds method
Variance
42.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,469 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 250 | $26K 40,000 gems | 45.1% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 63 | $2,912 4,480 gems | 20.2% | 16 | 23.5 | 0.68× |
| Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband | 1 in 33 | $715 1,100 gems | 9.3% | 52 | 44.1 | 1.18× |
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $336 516 gems | 7.3% | 73 | 73.4 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $201 309 gems | 8.7% | 148 | 146.9 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | 100 Thieves (Holo) | Boston 2018sticker · Sticker | 10.0% | $143 220 gems | 6.2% | 140 | 146.9 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · Remarkable | 70.0% | $10.78 16.58 gems | 3.3% | 1,035 | 1028.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableKick.com/Romix$256394 gems$26K40,000 gems101.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · RemarkableKing-Hassany$256394 gems$10.7816.58 gems0.04x
Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016sticker · RemarkableKick/HarryJZ$256394 gems$10.7816.58 gems0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $256 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 15.4%legendary 1.6%contraband 3.0%Sticker 10.0%Remarkable 70.0%best hit $26K (101.4x)