Sticky Business
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.28
12.74 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $7.45 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.89%
4,147 openings, odds method
Variance
17.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.29% – 119.50%, 4,147 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,169 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $219 336 gems | 29.3% | 51 | 41.7 | 1.22× |
| Sticker | DickStacy (Gold) | Berlin 2019sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $205 315 gems | 27.5% | 58 | 41.7 | 1.39× |
| Sticker | ropz (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100 | $182 280 gems | 24.4% | 45 | 41.7 | 1.08× |
| Sticker | Side Eyes (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $6.22 9.57 gems | 5.8% | 276 | 291.8 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Gold Web (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6 | 20.0% | $2.55 3.93 gems | 6.9% | 832 | 833.8 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Kawaii Eyes (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff | 20.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 3.1% | 852 | 833.8 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | From The Deep (Glitter)sticker · common | 25.0% | $0.57 0.88 gems | 1.9% | 1,046 | 1042.3 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Chomperssticker · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 1.0% | 1,009 | 1042.3 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.28 | 89.94% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 9.0%remarkable 1.0%#d32ce6 20.0%#8847ff 20.0%common 25.0%#4b69ff 25.0%best hit —