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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$122.49
188 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $110.24 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.06%
1,046 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,046 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $196 301 gems | 53.3% | 318 | 313.8 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 30.0% | $162 250 gems | 44.2% | 309 | 313.8 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Business Class (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $28.79 44.3 gems | 1.3% | 50 | 52.3 | 0.96× |
| Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $18.06 27.79 gems | 0.8% | 67 | 52.3 | 1.28× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $7.52 11.57 gems | 0.3% | 52 | 52.3 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $0.27 0.41 gems | 0.0% | 102 | 104.6 | 0.98× |
| MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 15.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 0.0% | 148 | 156.9 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $122 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 30.0%red 30.0%mil spec 15.0%Rare 10.0%#87c7ff 15.0%best hit —