Strapped Up
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.40
29.85 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $17.46 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.30%
2,299 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,349 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $455 700 gems | 13.0% | 13 | 11.7 | 1.11× |
| Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $288 443 gems | 16.5% | 27 | 23.5 | 1.15× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $157 242 gems | 18.0% | 45 | 47.0 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport Factory New (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 40 | $97.50 150 gems | 14.0% | 61 | 58.7 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $54.09 83.22 gems | 12.4% | 123 | 94.0 | 1.31× |
| Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $18.67 28.72 gems | 10.7% | 238 | 234.9 | 1.01× |
| MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $8.80 13.54 gems | 7.6% | 319 | 352.3 | 0.91× |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $3.76 5.78 gems | 4.3% | 448 | 469.8 | 0.95× |
| Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $2.44 3.76 gems | 2.8% | 487 | 469.8 | 1.04× |
| P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.53 0.81 gems | 0.8% | 588 | 587.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $19.40 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%restricted 20.0%other 2.5%mil spec 10.0%classified 20.0%violet 20.0%#4b69ff 25.0%best hit —