Streamer Luck
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.18
97.2 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $56.86 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.40%
3,288 openings, odds method
Variance
212.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,387 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $26.6K 41,000 gems | 46.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $7,461 11,479 gems | 26.2% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 500 | $3,333 5,127 gems | 11.7% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,545 2,377 gems | 5.4% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $924 1,421 gems | 4.9% | 6 | 10.2 | 0.59× |
| Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · Legendary | 24.5% | $4.41 6.79 gems | 1.9% | 830 | 829.8 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Infinite Diamond (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 24.5% | $3.57 5.49 gems | 1.5% | 834 | 829.8 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Team Immunity | Cologne 2015sticker · Rare | 25.0% | $2.29 3.52 gems | 1.0% | 815 | 846.8 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · exotic | 25.0% | $0.92 1.42 gems | 0.4% | 881 | 846.8 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covertJustski$63.1897.2 gems$26.6K41,000 gems421.8x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$63.1897.2 gems$26.6K41,000 gems421.8x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$63.1897.2 gems$26.6K41,000 gems421.8x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertbrock csgobig.com$63.1897.2 gems$7,46111,479 gems118.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $63.18 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%Legendary 24.5%Remarkable 24.5%Rare 25.0%exotic 25.0%best hit $26.6K (421.8x)