Sudden Wealth
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$114.61
176 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $103.14 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.11%
390 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 396 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2,244 3,452 gems | 21.8% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 50 | $1,066 1,640 gems | 20.7% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.26× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $657 1,010 gems | 12.7% | 13 | 7.9 | 1.64× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $494 760 gems | 9.6% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× |
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 33 | $300 462 gems | 8.7% | 18 | 11.9 | 1.52× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $203 313 gems | 9.8% | 11 | 19.8 | 0.56× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $76.40 118 gems | 3.7% | 22 | 19.8 | 1.11× |
| M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $44.05 67.77 gems | 2.1% | 15 | 19.8 | 0.76× |
| Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 35.0% | $24.53 37.74 gems | 8.3% | 139 | 138.6 | 1.00× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 40.0% | $6.49 9.98 gems | 2.5% | 154 | 158.4 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire☠$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireBottavious$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$115176 gems$1,0661,640 gems9.30x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $115 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.0%red 3.0%classified 45.0%restricted 5.0%violet 35.0%best hit $2,244 (19.58x)