Sugar High
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.67
8.72 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $5.10 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.08%
2,626 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,638 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $67.12 103 gems | 13.2% | 29 | 26.4 | 1.10× |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $41.84 64.37 gems | 16.4% | 48 | 52.8 | 0.91× |
| Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 40 | $38.42 59.1 gems | 18.8% | 65 | 66.0 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 22 | $21.94 33.75 gems | 19.4% | 100 | 118.7 | 0.84× |
| SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $5.59 8.6 gems | 11.0% | 282 | 263.8 | 1.07× |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $3.25 5 gems | 6.4% | 268 | 263.8 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $1.11 1.71 gems | 6.5% | 793 | 791.4 | 1.00× |
| R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 40.0% | $1.07 1.64 gems | 8.4% | 1,053 | 1055.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.67 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 1.0%classified 36.5%Mythical 2.5%industrial 10.0%pink 10.0%#8847ff 40.0%best hit —