Summer of Profit
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.93
44.51 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $26.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.07%
658 openings, odds method
Variance
10.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 678 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 33 | $512 788 gems | 59.0% | 26 | 20.3 | 1.28× |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $146 225 gems | 16.9% | 17 | 20.3 | 0.84× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $117 180 gems | 18.0% | 28 | 27.1 | 1.03× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 17 | $18.01 27.7 gems | 4.1% | 32 | 40.7 | 0.79× |
| SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 19.0% | $0.83 1.28 gems | 0.6% | 128 | 128.8 | 0.99× |
| FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 21.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.6% | 147 | 142.4 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Mudder (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $0.59 0.9 gems | 0.5% | 154 | 149.2 | 1.03× |
| Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 22.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 0.3% | 146 | 149.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareThomas the termonuclear bomb$28.9344.51 gems$512788 gems17.71x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.93 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 3.0%mil spec 9.0%covert 4.0%Rare 19.0%#87c7ff 21.0%industrial 22.0%restricted 22.0%best hit $512 (17.71x)