Summer Spirit
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.90
82.93 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $48.51 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.01%
225 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 225 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $465 715 gems | 19.2% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $286 440 gems | 47.1% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.06× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $91.72 141 gems | 18.9% | 26 | 22.5 | 1.16× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $50.09 77.06 gems | 10.3% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $16.12 24.8 gems | 3.3% | 12 | 22.5 | 0.53× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $2.40 3.69 gems | 1.0% | 44 | 45.0 | 0.98× |
| MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.1% | 58 | 45.0 | 1.29× |
| MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.0% | 45 | 45.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil specFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$53.9082.93 gems$2.403.69 gems0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.90 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%extraordinary 8.0%classified 10.0%pink 10.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 40.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit —