Sun Burn
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.33
0.5 gems
Advertised RTP
88.40%
EV $0.29 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.48%
25.9K openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.35 2.07 gems | 46.8% | 2,684 | 2640.0 | 1.02× |
| XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.17 1.8 gems | 40.7% | 2,600 | 2640.0 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 5.9% | 2,612 | 2640.0 | 0.99× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 5.0% | 5,331 | 5279.9 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.9% | 5,273 | 5279.9 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.7% | 7,900 | 7920.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical247ZAZA67FULLBOXED$0.330.5 gems$1.171.8 gems3.60x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.33 | 88.40% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 20.0%consumer 80.0%best hit —