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Suppressed

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$239.99
369 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $215.98 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.91%
153 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
9 openings · below min
7 days
123.51%±46.93135 openings
30 days
116.91%±44.08153 openings
since tracking started
116.91%±44.08153 openings
-0.5%111.8%224.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h941.48%±181.8—odds
7d135123.51%±46.9+1.4σodds
30d153116.91%±44.1+1.2σodds
All153116.91%±44.1+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$5,561 8,556 gems25.7%41.72.37×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$2,155 3,316 gems10.0%21.71.18×
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33$1,921 2,955 gems26.7%35.10.59×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$533 820 gems12.3%68.40.71×
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$359 552 gems8.3%148.41.66×
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$288 443 gems6.7%128.41.42×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert10.0%$87.96 135 gems4.1%1716.91.01×
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted10.0%$50.91 78.32 gems2.4%1316.90.77×
M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial10.0%$34.59 53.22 gems1.6%1616.90.95×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink15.0%$22.77 35.03 gems1.6%3025.31.18×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted15.0%$7.43 11.43 gems0.5%2225.30.87×
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted20.0%$1.70 2.61 gems0.2%3033.80.89×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$240369 gems$5,5618,556 gems23.17x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$240369 gems$5,5618,556 gems23.17x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covertKing-Hassany$240369 gems$5,5618,556 gems23.17x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$240369 gems$5,5618,556 gems23.17x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$240369 gems$2,1553,316 gems8.98x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert•Cřytox•$240369 gems$2,1553,316 gems8.98x
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards$240369 gems$1,9212,955 gems8.00x
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedHeaded$240369 gems$1,9212,955 gems8.00x
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified•Cřytox•$240369 gems$1,9212,955 gems8.00x
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$240369 gems$533820 gems2.22x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$240369 gems$50.9178.32 gems0.21x
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$240369 gems$359552 gems1.49x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink$240369 gems$22.7735.03 gems0.09x
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted$240369 gems$7.4311.43 gems0.03x
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert$240369 gems$87.96135 gems0.37x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pinkBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$240369 gems$22.7735.03 gems0.09x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink$240369 gems$22.7735.03 gems0.09x
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted$240369 gems$288443 gems1.20x
M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrialDaxo$240369 gems$34.5953.22 gems0.14x
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert$240369 gems$87.96135 gems0.37x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$24090.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.0%classified 13.0%restricted 50.0%industrial 10.0%pink 15.0%best hit $5,561 (23.17x)