Suppressive Fire
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$59.94
92.21 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $53.94 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.43%
174 openings, odds method
Variance
9.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,292 1,987 gems | 47.9% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 14 | $212 325 gems | 27.5% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× |
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 13.0% | $80.34 124 gems | 19.4% | 18 | 23.4 | 0.77× |
| Negev | Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 13.0% | $13.31 20.48 gems | 3.2% | 22 | 23.4 | 0.94× |
| M249 | Humidor (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 13.0% | $6.57 10.1 gems | 1.6% | 12 | 23.4 | 0.51× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 13.0% | $0.94 1.44 gems | 0.2% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× |
| M249 | Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 0.2% | 42 | 27.0 | 1.56× |
| M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)weapon · 2 | 24.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 0.0% | 47 | 43.2 | 1.09× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $59.94 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 24.0%classified 2.0%#4b69ff 7.0%Industrial Grade 13.0%industrial 26.0%Rare 13.0%restricted 15.0%best hit $1,292 (21.55x)