Surgical
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$75.85
117 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $68.26 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.56%
269 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 269 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,105 1,700 gems | 32.4% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 25 | $541 832 gems | 31.7% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 25 | $309 475 gems | 18.1% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 20 | $87.20 134 gems | 6.4% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× |
| UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 20 | $54.20 83.39 gems | 4.0% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× |
| FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $29.28 45.04 gems | 2.1% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Dispatch (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $15.28 23.51 gems | 3.4% | 45 | 40.3 | 1.12× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $3.51 5.4 gems | 1.5% | 73 | 80.7 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 30.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 0.4% | 87 | 80.7 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$75.85117 gems$87.20134 gems1.15x
P2000 | Dispatch (Factory New)weapon · RareFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$75.85117 gems$15.2823.51 gems0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $75.85 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%knifes 4.0%#eb4b4b 4.0%Covert 5.0%violet 5.0%classified 5.0%Rare 15.0%restricted 30.0%#4b69ff 30.0%best hit $1,105 (14.57x)