Survival Guide
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.46
6.86 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $4.01 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.99%
6,594 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,002 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal | 1 in 100 | $122 188 gems | 30.5% | 81 | 70.0 | 1.16× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $55.46 85.32 gems | 13.8% | 73 | 70.0 | 1.04× |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $30.33 46.66 gems | 7.6% | 72 | 70.0 | 1.03× |
| XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 14 | $12.84 19.76 gems | 22.4% | 494 | 490.1 | 1.01× |
| P2000 | Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $6.00 9.23 gems | 15.0% | 691 | 700.2 | 0.99× |
| Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $2.45 3.77 gems | 6.1% | 682 | 700.2 | 0.97× |
| CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray | 10.0% | $0.68 1.05 gems | 1.7% | 704 | 700.2 | 1.01× |
| MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 2.0% | 1,400 | 1400.4 | 1.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Morris (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.8% | 1,402 | 1400.4 | 1.00× |
| MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.1% | 1,403 | 1400.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.46 | 89.94% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedImmortal 1.0%gold 1.0%classified 1.0%Industrial Grade 7.0%restricted 10.0%consumer 10.0%gray 10.0%blue 20.0%milspec 20.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%best hit —