SWAT
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.60
8.62 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5.04 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.99%
4,433 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,481 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $41.69 64.14 gems | 82.7% | 470 | 448.1 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $1.38 2.12 gems | 8.2% | 1,310 | 1344.3 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 30.0% | $1.06 1.63 gems | 6.3% | 1,353 | 1344.3 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 2.8% | 1,348 | 1344.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specCamel habib habab$5.608.62 gems$0.470.73 gems0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.60 | 90.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%restricted 30.0%#8847ff 30.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit —