Team ML

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$24.12

37.1 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $21.70 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.42%

2,213 openings, odds method

Variance

15.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67.52%±46.99270 openings

7 days

85.74%±18.141,811 openings

30 days

85.42%±16.412,213 openings

since tracking started

85.42%±16.412,213 openings

20.0%67.5%115.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	270	67.52%±47.0	−0.9σ	odds
7d	1,811	85.74%±18.1	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,213	85.42%±16.4	−0.5σ	odds
All	2,213	85.42%±16.4	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,334 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 500	$1,569 2,414 gems	14.5%	5	4.7	1.07×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 333	$777 1,196 gems	10.7%	4	7.0	0.57×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$546 841 gems	12.6%	15	11.7	1.29×
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$160 246 gems	7.4%	19	23.3	0.81×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$142 218 gems	13.1%	58	46.7	1.24×
Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$108 167 gems	15.0%	69	70.0	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$70.32 108 gems	9.7%	57	70.0	0.81×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$37.38 57.51 gems	8.6%	106	116.7	0.91×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$27.75 42.69 gems	6.4%	119	116.7	1.02×
Sticker \| Noble (Holo)sticker · Mythical	80.0%	$0.57 0.87 gems	2.1%	1,882	1867.2	1.01×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epicRMV1207$24.1237.1 gems$1,5692,414 gems65.07x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epicya wyrsych poldi$24.1237.1 gems$1,5692,414 gems65.07x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epicAnonymous260438$24.1237.1 gems$1,5692,414 gems65.07x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$24.1237.1 gems$1,5692,414 gems65.07x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$24.1237.1 gems$7771,196 gems32.23x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$24.1237.1 gems$7771,196 gems32.23x4d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$24.1237.1 gems$7771,196 gems32.23x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$24.1237.1 gems$7771,196 gems32.23x8d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$24.1237.1 gems$546841 gems22.66x20h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$24.1237.1 gems$108167 gems4.49x57s

Sticker | Noble (Holo)sticker · Mythical$24.1237.1 gems$0.570.87 gems0.02x57s

Sticker | Noble (Holo)sticker · Mythical$24.1237.1 gems$0.570.87 gems0.02x2m

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$24.1237.1 gems$27.7542.69 gems1.15x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$24.12	89.99%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.2%covert 0.8%restricted 8.0%Restricted 3.0%mil spec 3.0%extraordinary 5.0%Mythical 80.0%best hit $1,569 (65.07x)