Teddy Bear
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.60
31.69 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $18.54 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.02%
2,289 openings, odds method
Variance
13.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,314 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $943 1,450 gems | 25.4% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.30× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $364 560 gems | 9.8% | 7 | 11.6 | 0.61× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $224 344 gems | 12.1% | 28 | 23.1 | 1.21× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $161 247 gems | 8.7% | 23 | 23.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $95.71 147 gems | 5.2% | 20 | 23.1 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $58.49 89.99 gems | 3.2% | 18 | 23.1 | 0.78× |
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $41.61 64.01 gems | 4.5% | 53 | 46.3 | 1.15× |
| AWP | Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 33 | $29.65 45.61 gems | 4.8% | 66 | 69.4 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 15.0% | $23.44 36.06 gems | 19.0% | 354 | 347.1 | 1.02× |
| Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 75.0% | $1.84 2.83 gems | 7.4% | 1,730 | 1735.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violetVYCK4$20.6031.69 gems$1.842.83 gems0.09x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violetKick/HarryJZ$20.6031.69 gems$1.842.83 gems0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.60 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 2.5%Ancient 16.0%red 1.0%restricted 2.0%pink 3.0%violet 75.0%best hit $943 (45.77x)