Terminator
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$40.20
61.84 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $36.17 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.58%
432 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 453 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 33 | $375 577 gems | 31.1% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 17.0% | $120 185 gems | 56.6% | 84 | 77.0 | 1.09× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $17.45 26.85 gems | 4.8% | 49 | 45.3 | 1.08× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec | 10.0% | $11.80 18.16 gems | 3.3% | 37 | 45.3 | 0.82× |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $7.95 12.23 gems | 2.2% | 48 | 45.3 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $2.59 3.99 gems | 1.8% | 102 | 113.2 | 0.90× |
| P250 | Bone Mask (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $0.34 0.52 gems | 0.2% | 119 | 113.3 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$40.2061.84 gems$2.593.99 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$40.2061.84 gems$17.4526.85 gems0.43x
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$40.2061.84 gems$17.4526.85 gems0.43x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$40.2061.84 gems$2.593.99 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$40.2061.84 gems$17.4526.85 gems0.43x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$40.2061.84 gems$120185 gems3.00x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$40.2061.84 gems$2.593.99 gems0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $40.20 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 3.0%covert 17.0%restricted 10.0%Mil Spec 10.0%mil spec 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —