Terrorist Loadout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.52
36.18 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $21.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.22%
296 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $132 204 gems | 12.5% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $73.71 113 gems | 13.9% | 4 | 11.8 | 0.34× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $53.05 81.62 gems | 20.1% | 26 | 23.7 | 1.10× |
| Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet | 16.0% | $32.55 50.08 gems | 24.6% | 53 | 47.4 | 1.12× |
| SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 16.0% | $22.50 34.62 gems | 17.0% | 45 | 47.4 | 0.95× |
| Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 14.0% | $8.29 12.76 gems | 5.5% | 46 | 41.4 | 1.11× |
| M249 | Humidor (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $4.30 6.61 gems | 3.0% | 38 | 44.4 | 0.86× |
| MP9 | Dry Season (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $2.85 4.38 gems | 3.4% | 81 | 74.0 | 1.09× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violetEvil Freaky Billie Jean$23.5236.18 gems$32.5550.08 gems1.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.52 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%covert 4.0%violet 16.0%#d32ee6 16.0%Industrial Grade 14.0%Rare 15.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —