The 10% Club
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.21
23.4 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $13.69 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.11%
2,828 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,864 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 50 | $199 306 gems | 29.1% | 53 | 57.3 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 33 | $101 155 gems | 22.1% | 103 | 85.9 | 1.20× |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $37.41 57.56 gems | 13.7% | 136 | 143.2 | 0.95× |
| MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $20.15 31 gems | 14.7% | 302 | 286.4 | 1.05× |
| FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $10.48 16.12 gems | 7.7% | 266 | 286.4 | 0.93× |
| SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.71 10.32 gems | 4.9% | 294 | 286.4 | 1.03× |
| SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.76 5.78 gems | 5.5% | 570 | 572.8 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 1.7% | 562 | 572.8 | 0.98× |
| UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $0.45 0.7 gems | 0.7% | 578 | 572.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $15.21 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 2.0%Ancient 3.0%pink 5.0%mil spec 10.0%violet 10.0%classified 10.0%restricted 40.0%blue 20.0%best hit —