The Cerberus
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$905.56
1,393 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $814.99 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.62%
80 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 80 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 11 | $3,870 5,954 gems | 42.7% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 11 | $2,742 4,219 gems | 30.3% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 11 | $2,022 3,111 gems | 22.3% | 12 | 7.2 | 1.67× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $242 373 gems | 2.7% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $86.16 133 gems | 1.0% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $55.98 86.12 gems | 0.6% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 11 | $22.37 34.42 gems | 0.2% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 11 | $10.22 15.73 gems | 0.1% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| AUG | Daedalus (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 1 in 11 | $2.46 3.78 gems | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 19.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 0.0% | 14 | 15.2 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$9061,393 gems$242373 gems0.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $906 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 27.0%restricted 37.0%mil spec 9.0%industrial 9.0%Industrial Grade 9.0%Common 9.0%best hit $3,870 (4.27x)