The Collector
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$171.35
264 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $154.21 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.04%
330 openings, odds method
Variance
10.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 342 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $3,379 5,198 gems | 43.8% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,885 2,900 gems | 24.4% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.46× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 50 | $813 1,251 gems | 10.5% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 14.0% | $192 296 gems | 17.5% | 64 | 47.9 | 1.34× |
| XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $25.69 39.52 gems | 3.3% | 71 | 68.4 | 1.04× |
| G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $1.33 2.05 gems | 0.3% | 84 | 102.6 | 0.82× |
| MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $0.70 1.07 gems | 0.1% | 107 | 102.6 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrialFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$171264 gems$0.701.07 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $171 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%epic 2.0%#d32ee6 14.0%Restricted 20.0%industrial 60.0%best hit $3,379 (19.72x)