The Cut Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$416.57

641 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $374.91 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.73%

36 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

12 openings · below min

30 days

36 openings · below min

since tracking started

36 openings · below min

39.5%93.8%148.0%

Small sample. 36 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	12	93.88%±53.5	—	odds
30d	36	74.73%±30.9	—	odds
All	36	74.73%±30.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 20	$1,268 1,951 gems	16.9%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 20	$1,128 1,735 gems	15.0%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	10.0%	$910 1,400 gems	24.3%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$708 1,090 gems	18.9%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	10.0%	$311 479 gems	8.3%	6	3.6	1.67×
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	10.0%	$221 340 gems	5.9%	4	3.6	1.11×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$165 254 gems	4.4%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	10.0%	$95.89 148 gems	2.6%	1	3.6	0.28×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	10.0%	$62.32 95.88 gems	1.7%	4	3.6	1.11×
★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	10.0%	$42.08 64.74 gems	1.1%	2	3.6	0.56×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	10.0%	$34.70 53.39 gems	0.9%	8	3.6	2.22×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.