The Don Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$36.03
55.43 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $32.42 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.78%
1,033 openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,039 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,602 2,465 gems | 9.9% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,133 1,743 gems | 10.5% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $439 675 gems | 13.5% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.87× |
| AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 67 | $304 468 gems | 14.1% | 16 | 15.6 | 1.03× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $203 312 gems | 12.5% | 21 | 20.8 | 1.01× |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $131 201 gems | 8.1% | 25 | 20.8 | 1.20× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $96.20 148 gems | 8.9% | 21 | 31.2 | 0.67× |
| SCAR-20 | Palm (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $37.06 57.01 gems | 11.4% | 99 | 103.9 | 0.95× |
| PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 80.0% | $4.51 6.94 gems | 11.1% | 844 | 831.2 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $36.03 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%restricted 82.5%red 2.0%extraordinary 3.0%Uncommon 10.0%best hit $1,602 (44.47x)