Green Machine
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$65.65
101 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $59.08 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.99%
2,839 openings, odds method
Variance
51.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,875 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldKotix$65.65101 gems$10K15,421 gems152.7x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldizaivars$65.65101 gems$10K15,421 gems152.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $65.65 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.2%epic 0.8%restricted 22.0%Immortal 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%classified 6.0%Mythical 28.0%violet 10.0%best hit $10K (152.7x)