The Elites
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.21
3.4 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $1.99 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.23%
7,851 openings, odds method
Variance
11.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,916 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $49.10 75.54 gems | 49.4% | 164 | 158.3 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $18.22 28.03 gems | 36.7% | 283 | 316.6 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 1 in 11 | $2.76 4.25 gems | 12.5% | 720 | 712.4 | 1.01× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Oopsgraffiti | 20.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 1.0% | 1,555 | 1583.2 | 0.98× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Losergraffiti | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.2% | 1,588 | 1583.2 | 1.00× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Tombstonegraffiti | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.1% | 1,626 | 1583.2 | 1.03× |
| Sealed Graffiti | QQgraffiti | 25.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.1% | 1,980 | 1979.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.21 | 89.97% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%mil spec 4.0%milspec 9.0%other 85.0%best hit —