The GOAT
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$88.60
136 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $79.75 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.62%
753 openings, odds method
Variance
15.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 783 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $2,325 3,577 gems | 29.2% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,868 2,874 gems | 46.9% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $167 256 gems | 14.6% | 51 | 54.8 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $52.83 81.27 gems | 3.3% | 32 | 39.1 | 0.82× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $47.39 72.91 gems | 3.0% | 32 | 39.1 | 0.82× |
| AWP | Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $25.16 38.71 gems | 1.6% | 40 | 39.1 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil)sticker · pink | 75.0% | $1.61 2.48 gems | 1.5% | 603 | 587.3 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $88.60 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 1.0%covert 12.0%restricted 7.0%pink 80.0%best hit $2,325 (26.24x)