The Golden Opportunity
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$222.76
343 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $200.48 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.65%
568 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 600 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B | 1 in 50 | $3,575 5,500 gems | 35.7% | 15 | 12.0 | 1.25× |
| Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $2,327 3,580 gems | 23.2% | 10 | 12.0 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | ropz (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $1,560 2,400 gems | 15.6% | 9 | 12.0 | 0.75× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,099 1,691 gems | 11.0% | 18 | 12.0 | 1.50× |
| Sticker | DickStacy (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $542 834 gems | 5.4% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.17× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $155 239 gems | 1.9% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× |
| Sticker | stanislaw (Gold) | London 2018sticker | 1 in 13 | $77.60 119 gems | 2.9% | 29 | 45.0 | 0.64× |
| Sticker | Headhunter (Foil)sticker · pink | 25.0% | $19.49 29.99 gems | 2.4% | 166 | 150.0 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Rio 2022sticker | 55.0% | $6.97 10.73 gems | 1.9% | 326 | 330.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4Btrickytrash$223343 gems$3,5755,500 gems16.05x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $223 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 2.0%extraordinary 4.0%Ancient 2.0%covert 4.5%other 62.5%pink 25.0%best hit $3,575 (16.05x)