The Megladon
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.09
43.22 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $25.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.68%
1,147 openings, odds method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,179 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $780 1,201 gems | 15.4% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.70× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $498 766 gems | 29.5% | 16 | 17.7 | 0.90× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $342 526 gems | 20.3% | 22 | 17.7 | 1.24× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $130 200 gems | 10.3% | 16 | 23.6 | 0.68× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $73.79 114 gems | 5.8% | 18 | 23.6 | 0.76× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 40 | $32.57 50.11 gems | 3.2% | 42 | 29.5 | 1.42× |
| SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 23.0% | $9.43 14.5 gems | 8.6% | 282 | 271.2 | 1.04× |
| XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 33.0% | $4.24 6.53 gems | 5.5% | 372 | 389.1 | 0.96× |
| Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 34.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 1.3% | 401 | 400.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covertEisdieleFifty$28.0943.22 gems$7801,201 gems27.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$28.0943.22 gems$32.5750.11 gems1.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $28.09 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%extraordinary 1.5%Restricted 2.5%mil spec 57.0%restricted 33.0%best hit $780 (27.78x)