The Nice List
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$81.88
126 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $73.69 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.49%
5,038 openings, odds method
Variance
85.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,169 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | London 2018sticker · remarkableFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$81.88126 gems$6.459.93 gems0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $81.88 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbase 1.2%covert 1.5%extraordinary 0.3%#4b69ff 2.0%pink 5.0%other 5.0%remarkable 10.0%uncommon 75.0%best hit $14.5K (176.5x)