The North Pole
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.07
92.42 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $54.06 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.22%
144 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 10.0% | $253 390 gems | 46.9% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| Souvenir Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $173 266 gems | 32.0% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $62.66 96.4 gems | 11.6% | 20 | 14.6 | 1.37× |
| Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $21.05 32.39 gems | 3.9% | 10 | 14.6 | 0.68× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.68 16.43 gems | 2.0% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $8.20 12.62 gems | 1.5% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $5.51 8.47 gems | 1.0% | 21 | 14.6 | 1.44× |
| StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.32 5.11 gems | 0.6% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $1.30 2 gems | 0.5% | 21 | 29.2 | 0.72× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$60.0792.42 gems$173266 gems2.88x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$60.0792.42 gems$1.302 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$60.0792.42 gems$1.302 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$60.0792.42 gems$1.302 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$60.0792.42 gems$3.325.11 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$60.0792.42 gems$3.325.11 gems0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $60.07 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 10.0%classified 20.0%covert 10.0%mil spec 10.0%pink 10.0%Legendary 10.0%restricted 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%best hit —