The Plan
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.76
21.17 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.38 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.07%
536 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 536 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $62.02 95.41 gems | 50.1% | 60 | 53.6 | 1.12× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $23.17 35.65 gems | 18.7% | 50 | 53.6 | 0.93× |
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $17.34 26.67 gems | 14.0% | 47 | 53.6 | 0.88× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $9.45 14.54 gems | 7.6% | 58 | 53.6 | 1.08× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $5.32 8.18 gems | 4.3% | 54 | 53.6 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $4.75 7.3 gems | 3.8% | 50 | 53.6 | 0.93× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.66 1.01 gems | 1.1% | 109 | 107.2 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 0.4% | 108 | 107.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.76 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 40.0%#8847ff 10.0%restricted 20.0%consumer 20.0%best hit —