The Witching Hour
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.29
38.91 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $22.76 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.50%
1,727 openings, odds method
Variance
11.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,879 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 100 | $779 1,199 gems | 34.2% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $280 430 gems | 24.6% | 38 | 37.6 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $84.50 130 gems | 7.4% | 32 | 37.6 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $48.11 74.02 gems | 10.6% | 90 | 94.0 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $36.31 55.86 gems | 8.0% | 105 | 94.0 | 1.12× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $14.46 22.25 gems | 6.4% | 165 | 187.9 | 0.88× |
| M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $8.63 13.27 gems | 3.8% | 169 | 187.9 | 0.90× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.00 6.16 gems | 3.5% | 410 | 375.8 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $1.64 2.52 gems | 1.4% | 386 | 375.8 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 25.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.1% | 468 | 469.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendarybimbo pičkok$25.2938.91 gems$7791,199 gems30.81x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryMexi$25.2938.91 gems$7791,199 gems30.81x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendarySTIANHAY$25.2938.91 gems$7791,199 gems30.81x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $25.29 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%extraordinary 2.0%covert 2.0%red 10.0%classified 10.0%rare 10.0%restricted 20.0%violet 20.0%Uncommon 25.0%best hit $779 (30.81x)