Thermal Shock
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$179.53
276 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $161.57 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.16%
275 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 275 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$180276 gems$30.8247.41 gems0.17x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$180276 gems$30.8247.41 gems0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $180 | 90.00% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.5%legendary 0.5%Immortal 5.0%extraordinary 13.0%restricted 10.0%rare 10.0%Classified 15.0%industrial 38.0%best hit $4,395 (24.48x)