Thief
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$176.66
272 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $159.00 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.84%
112 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 1,000 | $4,817 7,410 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 250 | $1,828 2,813 gems | 4.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 22 | $805 1,238 gems | 22.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $762 1,173 gems | 48.0% | 6 | 11.4 | 0.53× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $299 459 gems | 18.8% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $22.75 35 gems | 1.4% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $14.36 22.09 gems | 0.9% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.78 8.89 gems | 0.4% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× |
| USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.75 1.15 gems | 0.1% | 26 | 22.8 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $0.44 0.68 gems | 0.1% | 28 | 28.5 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restrictedi4m.didar$177272 gems$14.3622.09 gems0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $177 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.1%sunny 0.4%legendary 4.5%extraordinary 10.0%covert 10.0%Legendary 10.0%restricted 55.0%classified 10.0%best hit $1,828 (10.35x)