Threshold Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.87
115 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $67.38 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.19%
209 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 209 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $2,304 3,544 gems | 17.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl | 1 in 67 | $777 1,196 gems | 17.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $416 640 gems | 18.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.28× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $161 248 gems | 12.0% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $100 154 gems | 14.9% | 19 | 20.9 | 0.91× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 15.0% | $43.08 66.28 gems | 9.6% | 38 | 31.3 | 1.21× |
| M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 15.0% | $25.33 38.97 gems | 5.6% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× |
| P90 | ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $9.50 14.62 gems | 3.5% | 52 | 52.3 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industriesweapon · classified | 25.0% | $3.89 5.98 gems | 1.4% | 48 | 52.3 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$74.87115 gems$7771,196 gems10.38x
★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$74.87115 gems$7771,196 gems10.38x
★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$74.87115 gems$7771,196 gems10.38x
★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$74.87115 gems$7771,196 gems10.38x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.87 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%gold 1.5%covert 8.0%Ancient 25.0%red 15.0%#8847ff 25.0%classified 25.0%best hit $777 (10.38x)