Thunder And Lightning
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$165.94
255 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $149.35 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.77%
172 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $439 676 gems | 58.8% | 31 | 34.4 | 0.90× |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $194 299 gems | 39.0% | 44 | 51.6 | 0.85× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $24.95 38.38 gems | 1.7% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× |
| Tec-9 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $5.31 8.17 gems | 0.4% | 21 | 17.2 | 1.22× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.41 2.17 gems | 0.1% | 31 | 25.8 | 1.20× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.0% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $166 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%restricted 45.0%classified 10.0%consumer 10.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit —