Tilt Factory
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.13
27.89 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $16.31 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.28%
1,068 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,080 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $67.03 103 gems | 41.1% | 93 | 108.0 | 0.86× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $35.80 55.07 gems | 21.9% | 105 | 108.0 | 0.97× |
| Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $21.03 32.36 gems | 12.9% | 117 | 108.0 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $15.13 23.28 gems | 9.3% | 108 | 108.0 | 1.00× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $10.83 16.66 gems | 6.6% | 106 | 108.0 | 0.98× |
| Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $5.35 8.23 gems | 3.3% | 113 | 108.0 | 1.05× |
| G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $3.89 5.99 gems | 2.4% | 112 | 108.0 | 1.04× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $2.34 3.6 gems | 1.4% | 113 | 108.0 | 1.05× |
| MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 1.1% | 213 | 216.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · ClassifiedBigManToughGuy$18.1327.89 gems$15.1323.28 gems0.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $18.13 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 20.0%covert knife 10.0%classified 10.0%Classified 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%Legendary 10.0%Mythical 10.0%violet 20.0%best hit —