Tip of the Iceberg
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$97.41
150 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $87.67 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.85%
200 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $2,484 3,821 gems | 14.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,205 1,853 gems | 13.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 29 | $477 733 gems | 19.0% | 12 | 7.0 | 1.71× |
| Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $178 274 gems | 10.2% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.30× |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $130 200 gems | 14.8% | 20 | 20.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 10.0% | $116 179 gems | 13.3% | 16 | 20.0 | 0.80× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $91.71 141 gems | 10.5% | 18 | 20.0 | 0.90× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $30.92 47.57 gems | 3.5% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× |
| Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.70 5.69 gems | 0.6% | 37 | 30.0 | 1.23× |
| SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 35.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.2% | 63 | 70.0 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 12:30 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedArmands Miesnieks$97.41150 gems$1,2051,853 gems12.37x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$97.41150 gems$3.705.69 gems0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $97.41 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%classified 11.0%#4b69ff 5.0%restricted 25.0%Covert 10.0%covert knife 10.0%Rare 35.0%best hit $1,205 (12.37x)