Tomb Raid
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26,431.00
40,663 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $23,787.66 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.22%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $127K 195,000 gems | 26.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $81.5K 125,320 gems | 17.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 40.0% | $32.5K 50,000 gems | 54.6% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $1,683 2,589 gems | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 10.0% | $923 1,420 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 10.0% | $781 1,202 gems | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $297 457 gems | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| P250 | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $90.85 140 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryChuck$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryChuck$26.4K40,663 gems$32.5K50,000 gems1.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $26.4K | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%legendary 40.0%exotic 10.0%epic 10.0%restricted 10.0%milspec 10.0%best hit $32.5K (1.23x)