Track Star
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.43
29.89 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $17.48 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.06%
3,084 openings, odds method
Variance
12.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,155 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $556 855 gems | 31.8% | 38 | 31.5 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $276 424 gems | 31.5% | 65 | 63.1 | 1.03× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $82.35 127 gems | 18.8% | 117 | 126.2 | 0.93× |
| Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified | 13.0% | $6.99 10.75 gems | 5.2% | 428 | 410.1 | 1.04× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $5.67 8.72 gems | 6.5% | 633 | 631.0 | 1.00× |
| AUG | Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.43 6.82 gems | 5.1% | 612 | 631.0 | 0.97× |
| CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 0.9% | 627 | 631.0 | 0.99× |
| UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.2% | 635 | 631.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMajestic Skunk$19.4329.89 gems$556855 gems28.59x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $19.43 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 22.0%classified 17.0%restricted 20.0%#8847ff 20.0%violet 20.0%best hit $556 (28.59x)