Tragedy
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.99
53.83 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.49 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.30%
760 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 766 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 33 | $373 574 gems | 35.6% | 32 | 23.0 | 1.39× |
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $233 358 gems | 37.0% | 36 | 38.3 | 0.94× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal | 12.0% | $60.61 93.24 gems | 23.1% | 92 | 91.9 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $5.04 7.75 gems | 2.4% | 107 | 114.9 | 0.93× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6 | 15.0% | $2.74 4.22 gems | 1.3% | 124 | 114.9 | 1.08× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.94 1.44 gems | 0.4% | 115 | 114.9 | 1.00× |
| M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 15.0% | $0.34 0.53 gems | 0.2% | 118 | 114.9 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.1% | 142 | 153.2 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.9953.83 gems$0.941.44 gems0.03x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.9953.83 gems$0.941.44 gems0.03x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.9953.83 gems$0.941.44 gems0.03x
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6FarelEnergy skinbet.gg$34.9953.83 gems$2.744.22 gems0.08x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.9953.83 gems$0.941.44 gems0.03x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$34.9953.83 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$34.9953.83 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedBolpyFR$34.9953.83 gems$5.047.75 gems0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $34.99 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 3.0%classified 5.0%Immortal 12.0%Restricted 15.0%#d32ce6 15.0%restricted 15.0%#8847ff 15.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit —