Train
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.37
5.19 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $3.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.24%
3,070 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,085 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $36.70 56.46 gems | 12.1% | 24 | 30.8 | 0.78× |
| MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $9.45 14.54 gems | 12.5% | 122 | 123.4 | 0.99× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.95 9.16 gems | 19.6% | 323 | 308.5 | 1.05× |
| UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.25 8.08 gems | 17.3% | 318 | 308.5 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.65 5.62 gems | 12.0% | 285 | 308.5 | 0.92× |
| Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $2.61 4.01 gems | 8.6% | 329 | 308.5 | 1.07× |
| USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $1.54 2.37 gems | 12.7% | 762 | 771.2 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.53 0.81 gems | 5.2% | 922 | 925.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New)weapon · mil specInHumAn_EreCtiOns$3.375.19 gems$1.542.37 gems0.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.37 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%mil spec 59.0%classified 20.0%restricted 20.0%best hit —