Tranquility
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.99
10.75 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $6.29 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.60%
3,323 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,483 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $38.99 59.99 gems | 62.0% | 372 | 348.3 | 1.07× |
| P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $9.55 14.69 gems | 15.2% | 329 | 348.3 | 0.94× |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $7.66 11.78 gems | 12.2% | 349 | 348.3 | 1.00× |
| XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $5.27 8.11 gems | 4.2% | 148 | 174.1 | 0.85× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $3.39 5.22 gems | 2.7% | 169 | 174.1 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $1.28 1.97 gems | 1.0% | 197 | 174.1 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.89 1.37 gems | 2.1% | 537 | 522.4 | 1.03× |
| SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray | 15.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 0.2% | 485 | 522.4 | 0.93× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 0.3% | 897 | 870.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.99 | 89.96% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.0%#d32ee6 10.0%Legendary 5.0%restricted 20.0%mil spec 5.0%gray 15.0%industrial 25.0%best hit —