Trap Door
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.50
71.54 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $41.85 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.08%
134 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 182 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $131 202 gems | 31.4% | 20 | 18.2 | 1.10× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $111 170 gems | 26.4% | 23 | 18.2 | 1.26× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700 | 10.0% | $65.07 100 gems | 15.5% | 21 | 18.2 | 1.15× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Minimal Wear)gloves · gold | 10.0% | $58.70 90.31 gems | 14.0% | 11 | 18.2 | 0.60× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $30.25 46.54 gems | 7.2% | 21 | 18.2 | 1.15× |
| P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $9.52 14.65 gems | 2.3% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $8.78 13.5 gems | 2.1% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.04× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $4.05 6.23 gems | 1.0% | 20 | 18.2 | 1.10× |
| PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.0% | 17 | 18.2 | 0.93× |
| SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.0% | 12 | 18.2 | 0.66× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$46.5071.54 gems$111170 gems2.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $46.50 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 10.0%restricted 20.0%#ffd700 10.0%gold 10.0%industrial 10.0%#d32ee6 10.0%classified 10.0%blue 10.0%Rare 10.0%best hit —